Apr 2025 PCE Inflation Estimate

On Friday, we will get the Apr PCE inflation. Since I started publishing my PCE estimates in Feb 2024 (14 monthly forecasts so far), my average error for forecasting headline PCE has been perfect at 0 bps.

My average error for forecasting core PCE has also been perfect at 0 bps.

Without further ado, here are my Apr PCE estimates…

• Headline PCE

  • +0.1% MoM and +2.3% YoY

• Core PCE

  • +0.1% MoM and +2.7% YoY

If we get these numbers, they are unlikely to make the Fed cut rates in Jun because, in their view, these numbers don’t include the tariff effect yet, which they expect to be inflationary. That said, what they end up doing in Jun will depend on the May Employment Report.

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