Dec 2024 PCE Estimate

Friday next week we will get the Dec PCE inflation. Since I started publishing my PCE estimates in Mar 2024 (10 monthly forecasts so far), my average error for forecasting headline PCE was perfect at 0 bps. That said, Nov headline PCE came in -1 bps below my estimates of +0.14% MoM.

My average error for forecasting core PCE is -1 bps. Oct core PCE came in -2 bps below my estimates of +0.13% MoM.

All of my PCE estimates were published here on Substack before the actual numbers went out. Here is the latest one for Nov:

The upcoming PCE inflation read for Dec could be crucial in determining what the Fed does at some of their upcoming meetings (Mar and beyond). So where will the Dec PCE print at?

My Dec PCE inflation estimates are…

• Headline PCE

  • +0.3% MoM and +2.6% YoY

• Core PCE

  • +0.2% MoM and +2.8% YoY

---

If you liked Nov PCE estimates, you will love what Arkomina Research has to offer.

Arkomina Research offers 3 key macro and mkt reports:

1. Marko's Brain Daily - daily macro and mkt analyses of all relevant indicators, Fed speakers, long-term yields, general market predictions, and other

2. Marko's CPI Report - forward-looking inflation indicators, detailed #CPI forecast for current month, forward trajectory for headline and core CPI, preliminary CPI estimate for next month

3. Marko's Fed Report - current state of the economy and chances for a soft landing/recession, analysis of the monetary policy lags and when will they start to bite more aggressively, what the Fed has done so far, what they will likely do going forward, UR trajectory PCE headline and core trajectory

To receive all 3 reports each trading day, month, and before each Fed meeting, make sure to subscribe to

Arkomina Research Pro Investor

at this link: http://ArkominaResearch.com/Subscriptions/.

---

DISCLAIMER

These articles are for discussion and educational purposes only.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Although specific securities and economic forecasts may be discussed in articles, you should NOT construe any comment as a call to buy or sell any security, or as a legal, tax, investment, financial or other advice. Consult your own advisors if you require such advice.

ANY USE OF THESE ARTICLES IS AT YOUR OWN RISK AND LIABILITY. Neither Arkomina Consulting Ltd nor Marko Bjegovic as its director or any employee, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential, moral, incidental, collateral or special damages or losses of any kind.