Feb 2024 CPI Estimates

Last month the market got surprised by higher-than-expected headline and core Jan CPI reads.

For more about Jan CPI figures you can read my Jan CPI thread on X.

Now the biggest question in the market is - will Feb CPI come higher than expected?

My Feb CPI estimates are…

…cooler than consensus for all 4 key metrics. I’m expecting 0.1 pp cooler MoM for both headline and core CPI, 0.1 pp cooler YoY for headline and 0.2 pp cooler YoY for core CPI.

This time around Cleveland Fed Nowcast is entirely in line with consensus estimates. Worth to note that since the peak inflation mid-2022, Cleveland Fed Nowcast has mostly showed higher estimates which proved to be too high for actual numbers. Cleveland Fed’s constant miss on CPI is not that much surprising given their methodology relies on average reads in the last 12 months to forecast current headline and core numbers.

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If you’re interested in more detailed CPI analysis that contains:

1. forward looking indicators,

2. detailed CPI forecast for Feb and

3. core and headline CPI trajectory in 2024,

consider subscribing to Marko’s CPI Report which is part of premium Arkomina Research.

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