Feb 2025 PCE Estimate
Friday we will get the Feb PCE inflation. Since I started publishing my PCE estimates in Mar 2024 (12 monthly forecasts so far), my average error for forecasting headline PCE was perfect at 0 bps. That said, the Jan headline PCE came in +1 bps above my estimates of +0.32% MoM.
My average error for forecasting core PCE is -1 bps. The Jan core PCE came perfectly in line with my +0.28% MoM estimate.
All of my PCE estimates were published here on Substack before the actual numbers went out. Here is the one for Jan 2025:
Jan 2025 PCE Estimate
Friday we will get the Jan PCE inflation. Since I started publishing my PCE estimates in Mar 2024 (11 monthly forecasts so far), my average error for forecasting headline PCE was perfect at 0 bps. That said, Dec headline PCE came in -1 bps below my estimates of +0.27% MoM.
After cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI, will PCE follow suit?
My Feb PCE inflation estimates are…
Headline PCE
+0.3% MoM and +2.5% YoY
Core PCE
+0.3% MoM and +2.8% YoY
If you liked Feb PCE estimates, you will love what Arkomina Research has to offer.
Arkomina Research offers 3 key macro and mkt reports:
Marko's Brain Daily - daily macro and mkt analyses of all relevant indicators, Fed speakers, long-term yields, general market predictions, and other
Marko's CPI Report - forward-looking inflation indicators, detailed CPI forecast for current month, forward trajectory for headline and core CPI, preliminary CPI estimate for next month
Marko's Fed Report - current state of the economy and chances for a soft landing/recession, analysis of the monetary policy lags and when will they start to bite more aggressively, what the Fed has done so far, what they will likely do going forward, unemployment rate trajectory, PCE headline, and core trajectory
To receive all 3 reports each trading day, month, and before each Fed meeting, make sure to subscribe to
Arkomina Research Pro Investor
at this link: http://ArkominaResearch.com/Subscriptions/.
DISCLAIMER
These articles are for discussion and educational purposes only.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Although specific securities and economic forecasts may be discussed in articles, you should NOT construe any comment as a call to buy or sell any security, or as a legal, tax, investment, financial or other advice. Consult your own advisors if you require such advice.
ANY USE OF THESE ARTICLES IS AT YOUR OWN RISK AND LIABILITY. Neither Arkomina Consulting Ltd nor Marko Bjegovic as its director or any employee, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential, moral, incidental, collateral or special damages or losses of any kind.
Thank you so much Marko