Jan 2024 CPI Estimates

Since mid-2022 I’ve been publishing my CPI estimates on Twitter (twitter.com/MBjegovic).

Arkomina introduced premium research publications in Mar 2023. Since introducing Marko’ CPI Report, which is one of the 3 major publications by Arkomina Research, my CPI estimates have been exceptionally accurate with an average miss of 0 bps for headline and only -2 bps for core CPI.

My CPI estimates were publicly published on Twitter prior to official BLS CPI reports. For more including links to prior estimates visit ArkominaResearch.com.

After careful consideration, I decided to transfer my CPI estimates to Substack. Given they are part of premium Marko’s CPI Report offering 2 decimal point estimates for both headline and core, CPI estimates from now on will only be available to paid subscribers. After BLS CPI goes out, my prior estimates will become public.

My Jan CPI estimates are…

My estimates for Jan CPI are entirely in line with consensus. What is unusual that Cleveland Fed Nowcast actually sees -0.1 pp lower headline CPI numbers (both MoM and YoY). Since the peak inflation mid-2022 Cleveland Fed Nowcast has mostly showed higher estimates which proved to be too high for actual numbers. Cleveland Fed’s constant miss on CPI is not that much surprising given their methodology relies on average reads in the last 12 months to forecast current headline and core numbers.

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If you’re interested in more detailed CPI analysis that contains:

1. forward looking indicators,

2. CPI forecast for Dec and

3. core and headline CPI trajectory in 2024,

consider subscribing to Marko’s CPI Report which is part of premium Arkomina Research.

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For more information about Arkomina Research and how to subscribe using Special Offer click this link here.