Friday we will get the Jan PCE inflation. Since I started publishing my PCE estimates in Mar 2024 (11 monthly forecasts so far), my average error for forecasting headline PCE was perfect at 0 bps. That said, Dec headline PCE came in -1 bps below my estimates of +0.27% MoM.
My average error for forecasting core PCE is -1 bps. Dec core PCE came perfectly in line with my +0.16% MoM estimate.
All of my PCE estimates were published here on Substack before the actual numbers went out. Here is the one for Dec 2024:
Dec 2024 PCE Estimate
Friday next week we will get the Dec PCE inflation. Since I started publishing my PCE estimates in Mar 2024 (10 monthly forecasts so far), my average error for forecasting headline PCE was perfect at 0 bps. That said, Nov headline PCE came in -1 bps below my estimates of +0.14% MoM.
This month’s PCE will be an important piece of the puzzle for determining what the Fed does next. After hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI, will Jan PCE also be hot?
My Dec PCE inflation estimates are…
Headline PCE
+0.3% MoM and +2.4% YoY
Core PCE
+0.3% MoM and +2.6% YoY
If you liked Jan PCE estimates, you will love what Arkomina Research has to offer.
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Marko's Fed Report - current state of the economy and chances for a soft landing/recession, analysis of the monetary policy lags and when will they start to bite more aggressively, what the Fed has done so far, what they will likely do going forward, unemployment rate trajectory, PCE headline, and core trajectory
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These articles are for discussion and educational purposes only.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Although specific securities and economic forecasts may be discussed in articles, you should NOT construe any comment as a call to buy or sell any security, or as a legal, tax, investment, financial or other advice. Consult your own advisors if you require such advice.
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