Jan 2025 PCE Estimate

Friday we will get the Jan PCE inflation. Since I started publishing my PCE estimates in Mar 2024 (11 monthly forecasts so far), my average error for forecasting headline PCE was perfect at 0 bps. That said, Dec headline PCE came in -1 bps below my estimates of +0.27% MoM.

My average error for forecasting core PCE is -1 bps. Dec core PCE came perfectly in line with my +0.16% MoM estimate.

All of my PCE estimates were published here on Substack before the actual numbers went out. Here is the one for Dec 2024:

This month’s PCE will be an important piece of the puzzle for determining what the Fed does next. After hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI, will Jan PCE also be hot?

My Dec PCE inflation estimates are…

• Headline PCE

  • +0.3% MoM and +2.4% YoY

• Core PCE

  • +0.3% MoM and +2.6% YoY

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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