Jun 2025 PCE Inflation Estimate

On Thursday, we will get the Jun PCE Inflation, which would be another piece of the puzzle in determining Fed actions going forward.

Since I started publishing my PCE estimates in Mar 2024, my average error for forecasting headline PCE has been an almost perfect -0.6 bps (-0.007 pp).

My average error for forecasting core PCE is -0.7 bps (-0.007 pp).

All of my public PCE estimates were published here on Substack and can be accessed directly on the Arkomina Research Substack profile or the following website: www.ArkominaResearch.com.

Jun PCE could be yet another important piece of data in determining whether the Fed cuts in the foreseeable future or not. So, where will it print?

My Jun PCE inflation estimates are…

• Headline PCE

  • +0.3% MoM and +2.5% YoY

• Core PCE

  • +0.3% MoM and +2.7% YoY

My core PCE estimates are +0.25% MoM, meaning it could easily be rounded to +0.2% or +0.3%. The same goes for YoY estimates of +2.75%, which could be rounded to +2.7% or +2.8% based on the 3rd decimal point.

If we get these numbers, they are unlikely to make the Fed cut in Jul, while whether the Fed cuts in Sep or not will depend on more months of inflation (Jul and Aug CPI and Jul PCE) and the labor market data (Jul and Aug Employment Report).

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