Mar 2025 CPI Estimate
Thursday at 8:30 am ET, we will get the Mar CPI. CPI is one of the 2 most important macro prints each month. CPI is perhaps even more important than usual, given the tariffs and their potential impact on inflation. If CPI comes in favorably, hopes of the Fed’s pause being over soon could go up. On the other hand, if CPI comes in hotter, the Fed could extend its pause.
My average error for estimating headline CPI (based on the last 25 CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - Feb 2025) is extremely low at -2 bps (-0.02 pp).
More importantly, my headline CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 2 bps on average, 14 times in the last 21 months, or 67% of the time.
My average error for estimating core CPI (based on the last 25 core CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - Feb 2025) is also extremely low at -2 bps (-0.02 pp).
My core CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 1 bps on average, 14 times in the last 21 months, or 67% of the time.
For public links to my prior month's CPI estimates, go to ArkominaResearch.com.
Without further ado, my Mar CPI estimates are…
…the same as consensus for headline CPI MoM and YoY, and +0.1 pp above consensus for core CPI MoM and YoY. My estimates are also +10 bps above for headline and core MoM, +13 bps above for headline YoY, and +11 bps above for core YoY than the Cleveland Fed Nowcast.
My rounded estimates:
Headline CPI
+0.1% MoM and +2.6% YoY
Core CPI
+0.4% MoM and +3.1% YoY
My unrounded estimates:
I am expecting to see a notable -20 bps progress on headline CPI from +2.82% to +2.62% YoY. At the same time, I am expecting to see only marginal progress on core CPI from +3.12% to +3.10% YoY. If we see these numbers, they may not be enough for the Fed to cut rates in May. However, they still need to see the Apr Employment Report before making their rate decision in May. If this report is weak enough, a May cut could come back on the table.
If you’re interested in learning my longer-term CPI estimates (until the end of 2025), consider subscribing to Marko’s CPI Report, which goes out each month before CPI and, among other things, contains analyses of:
Forward-looking inflation indicators
Detailed Mar CPI estimate
Headline and core CPI trajectory until the end of Q1 2026
Preliminary Apr CPI estimate
To get Marko’s CPI Report, make sure to subscribe to Arkomina Research Pro Investor at this link: ArkominaResearch.com/Subscriptions/
By subscribing to Pro Investor, you also get:
Marko’s Fed report that goes out before each Fed meeting and, among other things, contains a detailed analysis of the economy and what type of landing we are in, an analysis of monetary policy lags, what will the Fed likely do in 2025, headline and core PCE inflation trajectory and the unemployment rate trajectory.
Marko’s Brain Daily which goes out each trading day contains analyses of all relevant macro indicators and events (such as Fed speeches and Fed meetings) from the prior day, my estimates for all important macro indicators coming out that day, and how the market may react to each scenario, as well as my view of the equity and bond market short-term direction, earnings analyses, tariff analyses, and much more.
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These articles are for discussion and educational purposes only.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Although specific securities and economic forecasts may be discussed in articles, you should NOT construe any comment as a call to buy or sell any security or as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Consult your own advisors if you require such advice.
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This one is crucial. Thank you so much