Nov 2024 CPI Estimate
Tomorrow at 8:30 am ET we will get the Nov CPI. CPI is one of the 2 most important macro prints each month (the other one is the Employment Report), but this month's CPI is even more important because it could make or break another 25-bps cut by the Fed. Not counting the retail sales, CPI is the last piece of the puzzle for the Fed before they make a rate decision next week. The Nov CPI might also be important for determining what the Fed does in early 2025.
My average error for estimating headline CPI (based on the last 21 CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - Oct 2024) is extremely low at -2 bps (-0.02 pp).
More importantly, my headline CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 2 bps on average, 12 times in the last 17 months or 70% of the time.
My average error for estimating core CPI (based on the last 21 core CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - Oct 2024) is low at -3 bps (-0.03 pp).
My core CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 2 bps on average, 12 times in the last 17 months or 70% of the time.
For public links to my prior month's CPI estimates, go to ArkominaResearch.com.
In Oct, headline CPI went up from +2.44% YoY to +2.60% YoY, with +0.24% MoM, still low enough to be rounded to 0.2%. Core CPI went up marginally from +3.31% YoY to +3.33% YoY, with +0.28% MoM, which rounds to +0.3%. The biggest question on everyone’s mind - has CPI gone up again in Nov, and if so, by how much?
My Nov CPI estimates are…
Headline CPI
+0.3% MoM, +0.1 pp above consensus at +0.2%
+2.7% YoY, same as consensus at +2.7%
Core CPI
+0.4% MoM, +0.1 pp above consensus at +0.3% (important note - my estimate is +0.35% which can easily be rounded to +0.3% or +0.4%)
+3.4% YoY, +0.1 pp above consensus at +3.3%
My unrounded estimates:
If we get a hotter surprise tomorrow, like I’m expecting, this might complicate the Fed’s decision to cut next week.
If you’re interested in learning my longer-term CPI estimates (until Q3 2025), consider subscribing to Marko’s CPI Report which goes out each month before CPI and, among other things, contains analyses of:
Forward-looking inflation indicators
Detailed Oct CPI estimate
Headline and core CPI trajectory until the end of Q3 2025
To get Marko’s CPI Report, make sure to subscribe to Arkomina Research Pro Investor at this link: ArkominaResearch.com/Subscriptions/
By subscribing to Pro Investor you also get:
Marko’s Fed report that goes out before each Fed meeting and, among other things, contains a detailed analysis of the economy and what type of landing we are in, an analysis of monetary policy lags, what will the Fed likely do in 2024, and 2025, headline and core PCE inflation trajectory and unemployment rate trajectory
Marko’s Brain Daily which goes out each trading day contains analyses of all relevant macro indicators and events (such as Fed speeches and Fed meetings) from prior day, my estimates for all important macro indicators coming out that day, and how the market may react to each scenario, as well as my view of the equity and bond market short-term direction, earnings analyses and much more
DISCLAIMER
These articles are for discussion and educational purposes only.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Although specific securities and economic forecasts may be discussed in articles, you should NOT construe any comment as a call to buy or sell any security, or as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Consult your own advisors if you require such advice.
ANY USE OF THESE ARTICLES IS AT YOUR OWN RISK AND LIABILITY. Neither Arkomina Consulting Ltd nor Marko Bjegovic as its director or any employee, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential, moral, incidental, collateral, or special damages or losses of any kind.
Thank you for making these estimates every month