Nov 2024 PCE Estimate
Friday we will get the Nov PCE Inflation. Since starting publishing my PCE estimates in Mar 2024, my average error for forecasting headline PCE was -1 bps. That said, Oct headline PCE came exactly in line with my estimates of +0.24% MoM.
My average error for forecasting core PCE is also -1 bps. Oct core PCE came exactly in line with my +0.27% MoM expectations.
All of my PCE estimates were published here on Substack before the actual numbers went out. Here is the latest one from Oct:
Oct 2024 PCE Inflation Estimate
I am a little with PCE inflation estimates these month, but we still have about 1.5 hours before the Oct PCE goes out. Without further ado, my Oct PCE estimates are:
Without further ado, my Nov PCE estimates are:
Headline PCE
+0.1% MoM and +2.5% YoY
Core PCE
+0.1% MoM and +2.8% YoY
If you liked Oct PCE estimates, you will love what Arkomina Research has to offer.
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Marko's Fed Report - current state of the economy and chances for a soft landing/recession, analysis of the monetary policy lags and when will they start to bite more aggressively, what the Fed has done so far, what they will likely do going forward, UR trajectory PCE headline and core trajectory
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DISCLAIMER
These articles are for discussion and educational purposes only.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Although specific securities and economic forecasts may be discussed in articles, you should NOT construe any comment as a call to buy or sell any security, or as a legal, tax, investment, financial or other advice. Consult your own advisors if you require such advice.
ANY USE OF THESE ARTICLES IS AT YOUR OWN RISK AND LIABILITY. Neither Arkomina Consulting Ltd nor Marko Bjegovic as its director or any employee, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential, moral, incidental, collateral or special damages or losses of any kind.
Excellent work marko
Love it!