Oct 2025 CPI Estimate
Due to the government shutdown, we will not get the October CPI on Thursday, November 13. Unlike last month’s print, the October CPI will not go out before the government reopens. Even then, it will take some time for the BLS to measure prices and prepare the report. If the government manages to reopen by the end of this week, which is now widely expected, this could leave enough time for the BLS to issue the October CPI some time before the Fed’s meeting in December. If it goes out before the next Fed meeting, the October CPI could be crucial for determining what the Fed does in December.
My average error for estimating headline CPI (based on the last 32 CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - Sep 2025) is almost perfect at -1 bps (-0.01 pp).
More importantly, my headline CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 2 bps on average, 19 times in the last 28 months, or 68% of the time.
My average error for estimating core CPI (based on the last 32 core CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - Sep 2025) is also almost perfect at -1 bps (-0.01 pp).
My core CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 2 bps on average, 20 times in the last 28 months, or 71% of the time.
For public links to my prior month’s CPI estimates, go to ArkominaResearch.com.
My Sep CPI estimates were almost perfectly in line with the actual figures:
Headline CPI +3.01% YoY, -2 bps below my +3.03% estimate.
Core CPI +3.02% YoY, exactly in line with my +3.02% estimate.
My Sep CPI estimates were published 10 days before the official CPI release (subscribers to the premium Arkomina Research, which is different from Substack, always get it before anyone else with preliminary estimates more than a month in advance):
As mentioned previously, if the government reopens reasonably soon, the October CPI could be crucial in determining whether the Fed cuts in December or not.
So, where will the upcoming CPI print?
My October 2025 CPI estimates are…