Due to the government shutdown, we will not get the October CPI on Thursday, November 13. Unlike last month’s print, the October CPI will not go out before the government reopens. Even then, it will take some time for the BLS to measure prices and prepare the report. If the government manages to reopen by the end of this week, which is now widely expected, this could leave enough time for the BLS to issue the October CPI some time before the Fed’s meeting in December. If it goes out before the next Fed meeting, the October CPI could be crucial for determining what the Fed does in December.
My average error for estimating headline CPI (based on the last 32 CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - Sep 2025) is almost perfect at -1 bps (-0.01 pp).
More importantly, my headline CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 2 bps on average, 19 times in the last 28 months, or 68% of the time.
My average error for estimating core CPI (based on the last 32 core CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - Sep 2025) is also almost perfect at -1 bps (-0.01 pp).
My core CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 2 bps on average, 20 times in the last 28 months, or 71% of the time.
For public links to my prior month’s CPI estimates, go to ArkominaResearch.com.
My Sep CPI estimates were almost perfectly in line with the actual figures:
Headline CPI +3.01% YoY, -2 bps below my +3.03% estimate.
Core CPI +3.02% YoY, exactly in line with my +3.02% estimate.
My Sep CPI estimates were published 10 days before the official CPI release (subscribers to the premium Arkomina Research, which is different from Substack, always get it before anyone else with preliminary estimates more than a month in advance):
Sep 2025 CPI Estimate
Due to the government shutdown, we will not get the September CPI tomorrow, but it will go out on Friday, Oct 24. Given the lack of crucial data (primarily the September Employment Report, PPI, and retail sales), September CPI could be even more important than usual. It can determine whether and how many times the Fed cuts going forward.
As mentioned previously, if the government reopens reasonably soon, the October CPI could be crucial in determining whether the Fed cuts in December or not.
So, where will the upcoming CPI print?
My October 2025 CPI estimates are…
Headline CPI
+0.1% MoM (-0.1 pp below consensus and -3 bps below the Cleveland Fed)
+2.9% YoY (-0.1 pp below consensus and -4 bps below the Cleveland Fed)
Core CPI
+0.2% MoM (-0.1 pp below consensus and -3 bps below the Cleveland Fed)
+3.0% YoY (same as consensus and -3 bps below the Cleveland Fed)
My unrounded CPI estimates:
If the government reopens relatively soon, the October CPI goes out before the Fed meeting in December, and the CPI comes as I expect it, this would support another cut next month, at least from the inflation’s perspective. As far as the labor market goes, the Fed would still need to see delayed BLS employment reports (likely Sep and Oct, while there may not be enough time for the Nov data to go out before the next Fed meeting) and the Nov ADP Employment Report before deciding whether to cut rates or not.
If you are interested in learning my estimates for the Sep and Oct BLS employment reports, Nov ADP Report, Nov CPI, Sep PCE, and detailed analyses of inflation and the labor market, subscribe to premium Arkomina Research, which offers:
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Marko’s CPI Report: Sent each month several days before the official BLS CPI release, converting detailed CPI and inflation analyses, analyses of forward-looking indicators, a detailed CPI estimate for the upcoming BLS release, a preliminary CPI estimate for next month, headline and core CPI trajectory 4 quarters out, and more.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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