Sep 2025 CPI Estimate

Due to the government shutdown, we will not get the September CPI tomorrow, but it will go out on Friday, Oct 24. Given the lack of crucial data (primarily the September Employment Report, PPI, and retail sales), September CPI could be even more important than usual. It can determine whether and how many times the Fed cuts going forward.

My average error for estimating headline CPI (based on the last 31 CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - Aug 2025) is almost perfect at -1 bps (-0.01 pp).

More importantly, my headline CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 2 bps on average, 18 times in the last 27 months, or 67% of the time.

My average error for estimating core CPI (based on the last 31 core CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - Aug 2025) is also almost perfect at -1 bps (-0.01 pp).

My core CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 2 bps on average, 19 times in the last 27 months, or 70% of the time.

For public links to my prior month’s CPI estimates, go to ArkominaResearch.com.

As mentioned, September CPI could be crucial for the Fed to determine whether and how many times it cuts going forward. This will be even truer if the government shutdown extends into November, which is no longer a remote possibility.

So, where will CPI print on the 24th?

My September CPI estimates are…

• Headline CPI

  • +0.4% MoM (+0.1 pp above consensus and +2 bps above the Cleveland Fed)

  • +3.0% YoY (+4 bps above the Cleveland Fed)

• Core CPI

  • +0.3% MoM (same as consensus and +5 bps above the Cleveland Fed)

  • +3.0% YoY (+7 bps above the Cleveland Fed)

My unrounded estimates:

If CPI comes as I expect, this could support another rate cut this month. What happens later will depend on more months of data, though. Typically, the Fed would want to see more employment reports and CPIs. Given that most of the crucial data don’t get out during government shutdowns and we don’t know how long this one will last, it is unclear how many more employment reports and CPIs will the Fed get before their last meeting this year in Dec.

---

If you’re interested in learning Arkomina Research CPI for Oct and Employment Report estimates for Sep, subscribe to premium Arkomina Research, which offers:

1. Marko’s Brain Daily: Sent each trading day around 6 am ET, covering prior-day macro indicators and events (e.g., Fed speeches, meetings), daily estimates for key indicators with market reaction scenarios, short-term equity and bond market outlooks, company earnings, tariff analyses, and more.

2. Marko’s CPI Report: Sent each month several days before the official BLS CPI release, converting detailed CPI and inflation analyses, analyses of forward-looking indicators, a detailed CPI estimate for the upcoming BLS release, a preliminary CPI estimate for next month, headline and core CPI trajectory 4 quarters out, and more.

3. Marko’s Fed Report: Delivered before each Fed meeting and, among other things, includes analyses of what the Fed has done so far, what they will do at their next meeting, a detailed economic situation, analysis of monetary policy lags, predcitions about what the Fed will likely do over the next 4 quarters, the unemployment rate trajectory and PCE inflation trajectories over the next 4 quarters, and more.

To get the reports, make sure to subscribe to Arkomina Research Pro Investor at this link: ArkominaResearch.com/Subscriptions/

---

DISCLAIMER

These articles are for discussion and educational purposes only.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Although specific securities and economic forecasts may be discussed in articles, you should NOT construe any comment as a call to buy or sell any security or as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Consult your own advisors if you require such advice.

ANY USE OF THESE ARTICLES IS AT YOUR OWN RISK AND LIABILITY. Neither Arkomina Consulting Ltd nor Marko Bjegovic, as its director or any employee, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential, moral, incidental, collateral, or special damages or losses of any kind.