When asked about the US economy most people would say it’s strong or solid. The current numbers (2.8% Q3 GDP, no negative nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate of 4.1%, initial jobless claims around 220K etc) would really suggest things are “strong and resilient”, like the Fed likes to say. Then when we add the fact that the Fed still has a cutting bias, there is a pretty good chance that things remain strong in the future, right?
Not so fast.
First of all…