Thursday at 8:30 am ET we will get the long-awaited Jun CPI. CPI is the most important macro print this week and this month. Powell said the Fed is looking for more good inflation data now that their dual-mandate risks are more balanced in order to strengthen confidence that inflation is moving back to 2% sustainably. Therefore, this month’s CPI could be crucial for determining Fed’s actions going forward.
In a nutshell, I use forward looking inflation indicators and adjust them for the CPI lag by also taking into account how they feed into the overall index. These lags tend to vary from time to time so the tricky part is to correctly anticipate how they would change.
Per usual, CPI forecast goes out on Substack a day or 2 before the official CPI number.
Marko's CPI Report will be available by the end of this weekend and it is a detailed inflation analysis which includes forward looking inflation indicators, detailed CPI forecast, as well as headline and core CPI trajectory (until the end of Q2 2025).
Realize you don’t want to share the algo but just conceptually what is going on so we can trust the work a bit more and try to think through error skew
Thank You Jasmina 🙏
Thanks will check it out!
Thank you for subscribing!
Hey are you going to preview CPi?
Yes.
Per usual, CPI forecast will go out Mon or Tue next week on Substack.
Great call Marko
Thank you Mike!
New subscriber — can you give us any sense of the methodology here?
In a nutshell, I use forward looking inflation indicators and adjust them for the CPI lag by also taking into account how they feed into the overall index. These lags tend to vary from time to time so the tricky part is to correctly anticipate how they would change.
You have by far the best CPI estimates out there. Thank you, thank you, thank you!
(Sorry for the multiple chats). The CPI projections have been great but it’s hard to use it if so close to the event. Thanks for the work
Per usual, CPI forecast goes out on Substack a day or 2 before the official CPI number.
Marko's CPI Report will be available by the end of this weekend and it is a detailed inflation analysis which includes forward looking inflation indicators, detailed CPI forecast, as well as headline and core CPI trajectory (until the end of Q2 2025).
If you wish to receive Marko's CPI Report, you can subscribe for Arkomina Research Pro Investor at this link: https://arkominaresearch.com/Subscriptions/
Curious where you are thinking for this month
Any thoughts on if the OER softness can persist? This was a big overshoot vs prior decel trend
Realize you don’t want to share the algo but just conceptually what is going on so we can trust the work a bit more and try to think through error skew