Jun 2025 CPI Estimate

Tuesday at 8:30 am ET, we will get the long-awaited Jun CPI. Inflation has become ever more important amid all the tariff drama. Many in the market, including the Fed, have expected to see tariffs increase inflation by now, but recent CPIs, including the ones for Apr and May that reflected the post-”Liberation Day” period, have been cooler than expected. Can this persist?

My average error for estimating headline CPI (based on the last 28 CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - May 2025) is almost perfect at -0.8 bps (-0.008 pp).

More importantly, my headline CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 2 bps on average, 17 times in the last 24 months, or 71% of the time.

My average error for estimating core CPI (based on the last 28 core CPI estimates from Feb 2023 - May 2025) is also almost perfect at -0.8 bps (-0.008 pp).

My core CPI estimates have been closer to the actual number than the average Wall Street estimates by 2 bps on average, 17 times in the last 24 months, or 71% of the time.

My May CPI estimates were published before last month’s CPI and turned out to be extremely close to the actual numbers:

• Headline CPI

  • +0.06% MoM was -2 bps below the +0.08% actual

  • +2.34% YoY was -1 bps below the +2.35% actual

• Core CPI

  • +0.12% MoM was -1 bps below the +0.13% actual

  • +2.76% YoY was -3 bps below the +2.79% actual

My May CPI estimates were published a day before the CPI release:

For public links to my prior month's CPI estimates, go to ArkominaResearch.com.

The Fed is expecting to see tariff-related inflation during this summer, starting in Jun. Will Jun finally be the month when tariffs show up in the CPI, or will we get another cooler-than-expected print?

My Jun CPI estimates are…

• Headline CPI

  • +0.1% MoM (-0.2 pp lower than consensus, and -11 bps below the Cleveland Fed)

  • +2.5% YoY (-0.1 pp lower than consensus and -14 bps below the Cleveland Fed)

• Core CPI

  • +0.1% MoM (-0.2 pp lower than consensus and -10 bps below the Cleveland Fed)

  • +2.8% YoY (-12 bps below the Cleveland Fed, consensus estimates are not available yet)

My unrounded estimates:

If CPI comes in line with my expectations, this is still unlikely to make the Fed cut rates later this month. Whether they cut in Sep or not will depend on more months of CPI and employment data.

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Arkomina Research also offers a premium service, which is different from Substack. If you’re interested in learning my longer-term CPI estimates (until Q2 2026), consider subscribing to Marko’s CPI Report, which goes out each month before CPI and, among other things, contains analyses of:

1. Comprehensive analysis of CPI data

2. Forward-looking inflation indicators

3. Detailed Jun CPI estimate

4. Headline and core CPI trajectory 4 quarters out

5. Preliminary Jul CPI estimate

To get Marko’s CPI Report, make sure to subscribe to Arkomina Research Pro Investor at this link: ArkominaResearch.com/Subscriptions/

By subscribing to Pro Investor, you also get:

1. Marko’s Brain Daily: Sent each trading day around 6 am ET, covering prior-day macro indicators and events (e.g., Fed speeches, meetings), daily estimates for key indicators with market reaction scenarios, short-term equity and bond market outlooks, plus earnings, tariff analyses, and more.

2. Marko’s Fed Report: Delivered before each Fed meeting and, among other things, includes analyses of what the Fed has done so far, what they will do at their next meeting, a detailed economic situation, analysis of monetary policy lags, predcitions about what the Fed will likely do over the next 4 quarters, and the unemployment rate and PCE inflation trajectories over the next 4 quarters.

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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